Monday, November 2, 2009

SPY: Falling through support

Let's look at the longer view on the weekly. Last week was a big red pepperoni and this looks like a subtle warning ala Mamis. Strength in the US dollar was required for such a move lower in the stock market, so we continue to watch the DXY to stay above $76.00 and preferably $76.30.

The chart is necessarily busy and shows Elliot wave 5 resolving the motive with last week's high. Also, both Fibonacci price retracements and time extensions are depicted. Eighteen weeks passed from the March low to the July low. The July low resolved upward after the fake out a-b-c reversal. November 13 will be exactly 18 weeks from the July lows, so following the Fib time extension, this should be a significant date.

In July, the pullback was less than 38% and this pullback should be in that neighborhood if we follow Fibonacci rules. That would give us a target of about $95 on November 13th, which sounds like an aggressive pullback. We'll see.

The dotted red trend line is from the March lows as is the solid red trend line.

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