Friday, November 6, 2009

SPY: Bullish vs Bearish?

We've had 5 up days after falling below the 50-d MA and the general upward trend from March has been respected. The case can be made for a bearish scenario as well as a further bullish move.

Bullish indicators: SPY is still above the 50-d MA. The trend is upward with a higher low made last week. The previous uptrends were 7-9 days and we are currently on day 5 of this one.

Bearish case: The uptrend is decelerating as evidenced by negative divergence on MACD histogram. SPY is now below the 20-d MA. Today we continued the uptrend with a higher high and IF this is a right shoulder of a bearish H/S, then we need to have a red bar or two.