Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Silver: $SLV

Anyone who has been long silver in the last 18 months has been suffering. My quick technical analysis of the weekly chart shows a few things:

1. The recent breakout above the descending trendline at $28 has not been confirmed with volume.

2. Long term support is $26, that's where buyers have shown up as far back as Jan 2011

3. Sellers have come in before at $34

If you are a trader, then long positions should be suspect without a breakout above $34 ON VOLUME.

If you are a long term holder, any significant break below $26 should signal trouble.

If you bought silver in the last year, well what can I say?

Friday, June 22, 2012

Elliott Wave Update

Daily SPY with Elliot Wave Counts
This is an update from last week's Elliot analysis.

Downward impulse from April took 8 weeks but finished with the A-B-C which began the first week of June.  Large volume sell-offs yesterday and today seem to portend the start of another downward impulse (Orange line).

June lows of 127-ish come into play and should be strong support for a wave 2 to start.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Elliot Waves

OK, Elliot waves have become old-fashioned and few traders look at them anymore. Here are the counts as I see then recent downward impulse. We have completed the A-wave corrective and are likely about to see how low the B-corrective will be.

Voo-doo. The Elliot Waves are usually only apparent to me after they are completed and I find them useless for trading. The low sentiment and oversold technicals from last week are pretty much played out. My guess is that we trade in a low volume range here .


Thursday, February 23, 2012

Rising Wedge-- bearish?

Notations on chart, click to enlarge
I'm still net long in my trading account, but have instituted hedges with QID and DZZ.  Other holdings include long positions in UNG, CVX, X and TBT (short Treasuries). All are swing trades for a week or more.