Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Kimberly Clark (KMB) Wolfe wave

Kimberly Clark (KMB) is a swing trade I've been holding since the August lows but now it seems to be getting ahead of itself. Here is the exit strategy and even a short set-up if the market swoons. Wolfe waves are elegant when they work and this one is a classic set up.

My cost basis is 65.29 and I set my sell-stop on the long position at 70.50 (white trend line). The short set-up is good only for the next few trading sessions on this test of top. If KMB drops below the red trend line then I'll enter a short with a target at the green line or Oct 23rd, whichever comes first. There's a chance that KMB takes off to the upside in which case I'll ride it. If it pulls back it may just trade in a range between the white and red lines in which case I won't have a position. This strategy takes patience but feels great when it works...ie, a fun vanity trade.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Is sentiment too high for gold?

Marc Faber has been bullish on gold for a long time and I've followed him into GLD as well, but now he's calling for gold to hit $10,000. Sentiment is as high as ever now. The inflation adjusted high form the 1970's is $2200.

One aside on this video, as pessimistic as Faber has been on the world economy (and history as proven him correct), he says that he is "not a heavy short-seller" and states his wealth is divided in equal quarters of 1) stocks, 2) gold/silver, 3) real estate and 4) cash. Not bad advice, although I think it's time to take some gold and US Treasuries off the table.. the risk-off trade is getting overdone.

Friday, June 3, 2011

SPY technically oversold

...and due for a (little) bounce. No question, there are structural problems in the macroeconomy and some major technical damage to the indices, but bears would do well to claim a small victory, take some profits and either go to the sidelines or reverse gears for a day or two.

It's time to get your list ready of stocks you want to own: GS, MSFT, PFE, KMB are some safe names. The last two have dividends larger than the 10-year Treasury. Even MCD and PEP have yields that are safe, although their stock price may pull back. For more aggressive investors, HCN, FTR, NLY are high yielders.

Remember that company earnings are still healthy regardless of what employment and other economic indicators may say.

Don't listen to me, these are not recommendations to buy or sell anything.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

The Fed's "Fatal Flaw"; Nothing has changed

In fact, it's worse since the banks that were too big to fail are now bigger than ever.

Monday, May 16, 2011

What the Cool Kids are Watching:

We are at support on the daily. See if the dip buyers come in here. MA's are still positive, but it could get ugly. Momo traders are all "talking about" going to the sidelines with lots of momo names getting taken out one by one. Today it's retail's turn. Transports are also at support, finnies have been dead for a while... altho Doug kass bought Goldman Sachs a couple days ago, so it might be a bottom, or Kass is wrong (again.).

Looking at the SPY (just to be more like Brian and to piss off Eric.)

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

GNW: Bearish Wolf Wave

Hedge time again for my net long portfolio. Let's try this GNW short set up. Remember to set stops for loss and gain. Don't forget to take gains in corrections.