Sunday, September 27, 2009

SPY: Elliot wave and Time frames

SPY is at a critical level based on my Elliot wave analysis. A close below the Aug high of 104.35 (intra-day) or 103.80 (closing price) would invalidate the Wave 4 I've been considering.

Using time frame analysis, a Wave 5, should it occur, may run into resistance in mid-October. Since Wave 3 cannot be the shortest motive wave, a Wave 5 can be no higher than 110.50.

Remember, a close below 104.35 should cast doubt on my analysis, and a close below the highest close in August-- 103.80 --would render my EWT analysis invalid and the "Wave 4" broken.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

TLT: preparing for deflation

TLT has followed pretty classic Mamis bottom formation.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

"It's toilet shaped"

David Roche: "We need real investment, not the kind that punters play with..."

SPY Elliot waves and shorter term

SPY Elliot waves are not very clear. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the motives. Off the July a-b-c correction, we had a long Wave 1 and I cannot be exact on where it ended. I believe we are in Wave 3 now or perhaps the early part of a flat wave 4. Either way, we should still have a Wave 5 to come, and I'm looking at the 112 level since this is the 50% retracement from the Oct 07 high.

On a shorter time frame, we can see that we may be in the flat Wave 4 since 9-17. Now we are forming an ascending triangle that could break out to Wave 5... the Terranova "superspike"? I'm looking at the 112 level as I stated above as the end of the Wave 5. wave 5 cannot be too high since our wave 3 is already somewhat short. Alternatively, we could be in the middle of a larger Wave 3 that can go for quite a while...