Friday, July 24, 2009

UUP: Bear trap or Breakdown?

The stochastic looks oversold on the Weekly and bearish on shorter time frames. We are at the yearly lows now of 23.45 and the higher probability trade is to go short here, but it's not a very good set-up at this point, warren buffet notwithstanding.

Elliot waves shows we are in Wave 5 of a downward motive which is the completion of a larger Wave 3 down. If these are correct, the support of 23.45 will break this week or next.

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2 comments:

  1. EricJuly 31, 2009 at 11:15 AM

    Or it's an ABC correction....

    1=a
    2=b
    3=c

    of wave 3.

    seems like the counts are solid... but when wave 5 is done..... Only the shadow knows...

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  2. TonyJuly 31, 2009 at 11:34 AM

    Thanks, I see the abc pattern from the longer term uptrend. The fact is that there is no way to know WTF this market is going to do. I've missed this last bull move form May, have no mojo. I'm fully hedged and mostly cash. Fuck it.

    Going golfing until this mess is resolved.

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