Sunday, July 12, 2009

The Bear is about to Growl

...and I don't mean Urlacher (you'll just to wait a couple months for that one.) I've been out of town and busy at work lately so the posts have been sparse. The shorts have been doing quite well and I'll review a few that I've been holding and have presented in the past.

XLF looks the weakest of the sectors, along with KRE. This is confirmatory of the SPY as is IYR and IYT. I present XLF only because it seems to have the farthest to fall.

Another way to play this would be to sell FAS short; it has just indergone a reverse stock split and should have significant decay as the volatility pick up.

PNC is bank short of the month, although there are many decent set-ups. I've been riding this for a few bucks now and my target is near the the 61.8% retracement from the recent highs off the March lows.

Regionals in general look miserable.

RSX is the "Medvedev dissing the dollar" play. Methinks he doth protest too much and this one should get another buck to the downside.

Always set buy-stops with these shorts, but RSX tends to gap alot on the open and is only good for swing trading.

Charts and Coffee has an excellent discussion about the bearish technicals although I'm not so sure I'd put much stock in her sentiment indicator using Google Trends. I really like the idea of pursuing an objective sentiment indicator, however, website trends are not proven and I would add that while "bear market" illicits a decreasing volume of web traffic, so does "bull market" over the last few weeks. Of course, we could surmise that there is a general complacency about all things related to the stock market, but I'm still unconvinced this sentiment indicator is valuable... and C&C also recognizes this weakness.

Teresa Lo uses the 52-week high/low oscillators via Justin Mamis, and I guess I would defer to her judgement on this issue, although the oscillators tend to give little actionable information on a shorter time frame.

Regardless, Charts and Coffee has a top-notch review of the markets tonight and it is recommended.

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