Monday, July 13, 2009

Causation and Market Rallies

OK, so I'll massage my confirmation bias for a bit.

Meredith Whitney upgraded GS? And that is going to save the market? In the same interview she also said she expects unemployment at 13%, the consumer to suck and mortgages to go further south. How do GS earnings help the rest of the economy, or the rest of the stock market for that matter?

Kernan made some comment about BAC earnings being more important since that would reflect the consumers' position, but I would argue that even that does not matter. The fact is that this rally is not *because* of anything.

The market was oversold, and it rallied. Full stop. This big triple digit day got us back to where, last Tuesday? The bearish technicals are still intact.


  1. one my better say that the market bounced in anticipation of the Goldman earnings.

  2. I guess I'm just not a fan of a single causation for a broad-based market move. GS is a big hedge fund and they made money by trading... how much relevance does this have to, say, PNC's 5% rise or the economy in general? The market was ready to bounce for no specific reason, or a million specific reasons, but GS was barely significant.