What's the long view of this market? I was reviewing the wisdom of the venerable market technician John Murphy who reminds us of the importance of weekly charts. He also puts emphasis on MACD and Volume, both of which I use (so maybe I have absorbed something.) I am impressed by how few trading sites take longer views of the indices, and it seems even more helpful now that the perturbation of the Fall is finally abating and we have a renewed need to factor in last summer and the previous year. I'll start with the SPY.
SPY weekly. Sure we had this massive deleveraging when everyone (myself included) thought Armageddon was a possibility, but the markets have settled somewhat and now we are approaching a significant downward trendline. This picks up from last summer when the SPY was already showing some signs of weakness. Now SPY is at the 200-d MA and approaching the big trendline... if it breaks through, this would be significant.
The horizontal line (sorry, Eric) represents overhead resistance and we have broken through this already, and this should act as support. Murphy says that the time to buy is when the market is at support, and by all definitions that is exactly where we are now.
Another item I did not put on the chart is that the 38% Fibonacci retracement from the October 2007 market high is 102-ish.
Let's review the signs: Overhead resistance breakout, now support (yes), 200-d MA breakout (yes), Long term down trend breakout (not yet), 38% Fib from high (not yet, and this may be where we get turned away at 102).
Murphy also likes to look at the MACD and the rule is that the market is bullish as long as the fast line is above the slow line (it is) and both are below zero (they are). The histogram, for the record, is showing bullish divergence on the weekly.
One last thing of importance is the volume. Yes this bull run (or counter trend rally) has been on lower volume when compared to the Fall... BUT one could argue the Fall was a massive dislocation with highly levered fund managers dumping shares in order to raise capital, so of course the volume was crazy. Compared to a year ago, however, the volume is on par.
While we obviously cannot ignore completely the face-raking that happened in the Fall, if one were to cover up the chart from September to March or even to May, one would see a different picture: A bear market to be sure, but one that is at significant support/resistance levels and can go higher if the recent trend follows the weekly technical signs.
SPY daily. Let's drill down to the daily charts and see that big red trend line looming. Also remember the 38% Fib level from the Oct 2007 high is 102 (not on the chart).
MACD, histogram and volume are not as pretty from a bullish scenario, but by the same token they are not screaming "sell" either. And remember, Murphy says "weekly signals take precedence over daily signals [on the MACD]."
SPY has seen an uptrend on decreasing volume and now showing a divergence from the recent top June 11th. A head and shoulders top can be seen with the right shoulder developing now... I don't think this is a higher low forming because I see a MACD divergence and decreasing volume.
Mamis bottom chart showing the sentiment readings and targets. Now let's look at some sectors that appear ot be rolling over to see where the targets are. Time series analysis is not my forte, but I'll give rough estimates.
XLF Weekly hit the high week of May 8th and now appears to be rolling over with renewed belief in negative news. Point E Aversion target is 9.50 or below around July 24th.
IYR Weekly. Recent high Point D was reached June 6 and if this is deteriorating we have a target of 25-ish near July 24th.
SPY has had, as Eric said, a lot of technical damage today with some major trend lines being broken.
Caveat: Do not view these as recommendations, I have no business giving advice.. Invivoanalytics has no responsibility for these analyses; I gave them credit for their Momentum stock list but they have not recommended a position.
PNRA looks weak and may have more downside to come.
HGG makes consumer electronics. Lower high and at trend line support. 
SPY. The drama just never quits. Now we have this very mature pennant or ascending triangle and the mystery will be solved very soon. The last time we went through this-- two weeks ago-- the SPY broke out to the upside.
SPY ran up to R1 with good economic news this morning, but now it's on the third upswing in this channel or pennant or whatever we want to call it. If it breaks above the 95.60 then that could act as support for while
The last post, SPY target was given as 94.06 which is daily S1. Now we have hit the target and are currently overbought on the short term. I scalped some SSO and am out now. Looking to get some shorts for overnight: CTAS, THOR, LEAP
SPY has dropped precipitously from the open and is currently oversold from a technical standpoint.
GLD. I honestly have no idea about this Elliot wave stuff... I'll defer to Eric. 
SPY does not want to commit. Tech and specifically semis are strong today. SPY is currently at daily VWAP and is chopping .
SPY has fallen to Pivot, as predicted one hour ago. It may go further, but I'm going to ride my bike. 
SPY pivots are horizontal light blue lines. We started out at R2 and quickly dropped to Pivot. Now we have come back up to R1 but a lot of trouble getting above this level despite the positive NFP news.
Justin Mamis looked at the technical and sentiment analysis of market bottoms. Let's see where we are now and project into summer.
SPY 2002 -03 market bottom shows a similar pattern with Point C bottom on Oct 02 and Point E Aversion in March 03 (approximately 5 months to the test of the low) before positive market movement takes over.
SPY pivots. SPY showing constructive pattern, although low volume. Now we have broken above R1 (94.26) after touching it all afternoon. R2 = 94.87 and that's the target before we pullback. I'm liking that for today or after hours.
Sectors the past 14 days shows some early cycle movement, but with a huge commodities outlier... but that's the weak dollar talking. We can have a recovery with a weak dollar. Someone said "synthetic growth" on CNBC... but isn't that how growth should start with Keynesian stimulus?
Sectors for 60 days (from the March low) shows massive finanacial sector outperformance, but otherwise fairly broadbased from the lows.
Sectors 400 days (from the Oct 2007 high) doesn't add much to the picture... pretty much what we expect with finnies getting hammered and everything else following.
SPY pull backs here due to a US dollar bounce which has hit commodities. Retail also looks weak on the day. Banks and health care are holding up okay.
SPY weekly. Sure we had this massive deleveraging when everyone (myself included) thought Armageddon was a possibility, but the markets have settled somewhat and now we are approaching a significant downward trendline. This picks up from last summer when the SPY was already showing some signs of weakness. Now SPY is at the 200-d MA and approaching the big trendline... if it breaks through, this would be significant.
SPY daily. Let's drill down to the daily charts and see that big red trend line looming. Also remember the 38% Fib level from the Oct 2007 high is 102 (not on the chart).
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