SPY 2002 -03 market bottom shows a similar pattern with Point C bottom on Oct 02 and Point E Aversion in March 03 (approximately 5 months to the test of the low) before positive market movement takes over.
Where are we now? If we follow Mamis' lead and assume this market bottom will look like Mamis' model and the 2002 -03 chart, we can draw in some projections. Point C "Maximum Information Risk, Minimum Price Risk" indicates the March 9th bottom of 666.
We should be approaching Point D "Denial" soon. My projection calls for a pullback this summer as Point DD "Renewed Belief in Negatives" dominates. In 2002 -03 the re-test of lows occurred approximately 5 months from the bottom, so that would bring us to August 09 with Point E "Aversion".
Sentiment now is very positive with money managers feeling behind the ball on this rally. The NFP today is being met with buying... which could be viewed as denial of the magnitude of the problems we are facing in the economy.