Update: IYR Wolfe wave bearish

Earlier today I presented a trade set up. So far, so good:

IYR Bearish Wolfe Wave

IYR and XLF Mamis targets

Mamis bottom chart showing the sentiment readings and targets. Now let's look at some sectors that appear ot be rolling over to see where the targets are. Time series analysis is not my forte, but I'll give rough estimates.

XLF Weekly hit the high week of May 8th and now appears to be rolling over with renewed belief in negative news. Point E Aversion target is 9.50 or below around July 24th.

IYR Weekly. Recent high Point D was reached June 6 and if this is deteriorating we have a target of 25-ish near July 24th.

Real Estate is oversold

Last week we looked at AVB and VTR as short opportunities and entered AVB.  IYR is now showing signs of being oversold and due for a bear market bounce, or at least the risk of staying short is too high.

Short AVB was held for a few days and several percent was taken out.  I covered on Friday.

Short VTR for a quick swing trade.  This worked out okay but showed it was time to cover.   The capitulation on Thursaday with decent volume told me it was time to bail.  I could have turned around and gone long, but I missed it.