Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Dollar bounces; Reflation trade falters (UPDATE)

SPY pull backs here due to a US dollar bounce which has hit commodities.  Retail also looks weak on the day.  Banks and health care are holding up okay.

Perspective: SPY is back to Friday.  I'm looking at the red trend line as a Rubicon.  We're below the horizontal breakout point of 93.20.  A close below 92.20 today would be significant.  As I type we are 92.90 which is S3.  My guess is that this will hold, maybe even bounce up to S2 = 93.58.

I wish my regional bank shorts were doing better.  I exited long  FCX at the open, but still have GLD and SLV.  

As an aside, will someone please take Huckman's microphone and shove it up Carl Icahn's ass. Does anyone really care about this shit?  (But I do like SIGA as a biotech name here.)


UPDATE 1602hrs:

Close is 93.55 as predicted (S2 = 93.58).    Eery how those supports work.

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