Monday, August 17, 2009

Renewed Belief in the Negatives

It's time to uncrumple the Justin Mamis model that I jettisoned about three weeks ago. The Bloomberg headlines tell the sentiment story: Renewed belief in negatives. The goldilocks economy is showing some gray hair and bald spots. No positive stories. We have a jobless, consumer-less recovery, and the rest of the world is even worse.

The mamis chart depicting market bottoms and the corresponding sentiment puts us at Point DD.

Then we plug in the Points on the SPY and see that the sentiment of shitty news matches perfectly with the beginning of Point DD. Target is SPY 80-85. The 38.2% time retracement is from the market high Oct 07 to the bottom of Mar 09 and ends at 38.2%, or Sept 09. I'm not sure if this would be Point E time target.

Having said all that, we'll probably bounce tomorrow.

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