Thursday, August 6, 2009

Low Volume + NFP = short opportunity

No volume today. Everyone is happy right where they are with the jobs report tomorrow.*

That guy that JUST bought VNO for 58 bucks is very satisfied, I suppose.

I'm totally hedged right now. Beautiful day. Going golfing.

When the birth/ death adjustment gets corrected, the NFP will lay this market to waste... but no rush, the take-down will be orderly, so keep your powder dry.

* Crudele on NFP:

"The Labor Department doesn't screw around much with the July jobs figures that'll be released at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow.

"Last year it added only 25,000 jobs that small companies are supposed to be creating. It'll probably add something like that estimate this year.

"That compares with 185,000 phantom jobs added in June; 220,000 in May, 226,000 in April and 114,000 in March.

"So tomorrow's number will be the purest of the year. Viewing the July employment data will be like seeing a Hollywood starlet without her makeup. Be prepared to have your illusions destroyed."

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