Friday, April 24, 2009

SPY needs GOOD news

In reference to the last post on the Mamis bottom, the SPY is at resistance and can either be turned away or it can break through to the upside. Duh.

My thought has been than the SPY would be rejected and drop back a few percent before making another run at the level. Up until now, we have had a run based on an oversold condition with contrarian sentiment and short covering. That was then. From this point, however, any further strength will need to have GOOD news, such as earnings, in order to be significant.

In the last 24 hrs we have had a good earnings number by AXP, a better-than-expected druable goods number and this morning Ford says they are burning less cash. GOOD news.

My prediction needs to be revised to factor in the possibility that we go up from here and then resistance will act as support. Watch the shorts, but be careful of longs until we break above 86 or 87 on decent volume.

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