Wednesday, April 29, 2009
I'm stealing Eric's chart
SPY with trend lines drawn in by Eric at Buying the Top. (Nobody draws trend lines as well as Eric... his right brain is the size of Kansas.)
Okay, I may be obsessing about the current market situation, but I feel that we are at an important inflection point which needs special attention.
The trend lines that have been drawn have all been violated to the downside, and the upper trend lines have not even been challenged for over a week. This looks like the market is rolling over.
Can it head fake yet again and break through the resistance and overhead supply? Sure, but if the lower pink trend is violated to the downside, I think we go to 78.5 which is the next support.
My question is (and it's not rhetorical): IF-- and that's a big IF-- the market breaks down, which sectors will be the best short opportunities?
A) Those that have underperformed over the last six weeks and remain relatively cheap and out of favor (health care, consumer staples), or
B) Those that have outperformed and may be overbought in teh short term (financials, real estate, retail), or
C) Some other sectors based on another metric.
I realize that this thesis may be flawed and we (royal we) may see the S&P do yet another head fake and break above 87.50 on it's way to 90 or 100, but what are the odds? 75% chance down vs. 25% up?
The market feels ugly and tired, but not fearful. Let's call it the Britney Spears market: still has some talent and might pull off another successful tour, but it's best days are probably behind it and more likely will end up in an unconscious heap next to the toilet gargling it's own vomit someday very soon.