Monday, February 23, 2009

Sentiment improving but not there yet

The TK sentiment meter just clicked to green. When he typed "O-BOMB-A" I saw the light go on.

The street has had it with this guy O-BOMB-A. Wait till you see the pressure put on him.

He is in over his head. We are down almost 2000 pts since he was elected and he still doesn't get it. Very oversold short term and intermeiadte term so I expect a bounce but only a bounce. Unless he does something drastic which I don't think is in the cards.

As Eric has pointed out, the market is down 1000 points since Obama took office, but it was down 7,000 the previous 14 months.  The market would have been down no matter what the new president has said or done.  These companies, especially the banks have no earnings.  Is that President Obama's fault?  They are levereged 30:1 with worthless paper.  Did President Obama tell them to do that?

These same folks decry government intervention and then they decry the lack of government intervention.  I know I know, if only the governemnt would institute MY bailout plan, then it would all be okidokey.  TK is at #2 on the Kubler-Ross continuum of grieving the market*. (I've been at #5 for a while).  This is closer to a bullish sentiment indicator when grizzled street veterans lose their cool.  Discouragement on the chart below.

T.Lo's objective sentiment indicator (firewalled) is looking more bullish, too.

Unfortunately the fundies still suck and T.Lo's only technical winners are PCLN and MYL (other than gold and inverse funds.)

How do we play this scenario? I may take the day off tomorrow... but if the markets gap higher at the open, I'd suggest a little BGZ or FAZ.  If the market gaps lower at the open, I'd sit back with a cup of coffee and watch The View or Regis.  We still might need to print a 666 on the S&P, but we're getting closer folks.

*TK was buying Citigroup as recently as 4 weeks ago and has been looking for an inverse head and shoulders for over two months.  I'm worried about him.  Doesn't he know what is happening in the world?

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