Wrap up and Review

As discussed in previous post...

Sprint (S): Re-purchased Sprint (S) at close for $3.59 and MACD shows bullish divergence on 5 and 20 minute charts.

BMC opened long near end of day for $28.97 with strong MACD and near low of day.

AXP opened a short near the day's high and rode it for 40 cents and nice profit.  

IBM and RIG both sold near high of day for profit.  may re-enter at some point.

TJX still watching for an entry.

FCX and SLV and GLD are holds.

MS is now oversold, but I did not buy it yet.

FXA and FXC: Australian and Canadian dollar ETF's were opened long to diversify my fairly large cash holdings with US dollar in the overbought area.  Yes, cash is a holding.

Wall of Worry Charts

Now we climb that wall of worry.  The SPX is still below the declining 50 dMA and nobody expects it to make a move past 815 before pulling back.  Was this just short-covering, or will it develop into a real rally?  Shorts are nervous about getting squeezed, longs are nervous about that 815 resistance, cash holders are nervous about missing something.  Game on.

BMC long if it can break through the overhead resistance.  It may have to pull back a bit here, but this charts looks okay if it can break above 30.22

AXP short set up is developing with high volume doji Friday showing the short-covering may be finished.  Look for confirmation Monday with a red hotdog on decent volume, then short the bejesus out of this one.  High end credit cards?  Yeah, right.  These guys are paying customers to pay off their balances... what kind of a business model is that?

TJX is coming off a healthy basing pattern although the breakout is on lousy volume and RSI is now overbought.  Retail should have a little more life in it, but Iwill wait for a pull back to horizontal support before entering a long and keep the sell stop near the trend line.  If this gets above 26.36 it could run.

Sprint (S) long has been strong.  I took 22% gains on Friday with the lower volume, but this baby was strong into the close so it should be interesting to see how it opens Monday.  On any low volume pull back, I'll add to my position.  Above 4.5 the next resistance is 6.5.  Sell-stop is the trend line.

MS long may be one of few survivors in the sector along with GS.  I would be careful entering here, but long term this should do okay.  

Citigroup (C) is still standing despite doing just about everything wrong.  In fact, C had a 78% gain this weak on pretty decent volume.  Sure some was short-covering, but probably some new buyers, too.  Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes said they will not allow any big banks to fail and the leading indicator out of the crisi will be when the big boys start getting private equity.  I'm not buying this smoldering heap of burning tax bailout money, but the chart is interesting.  This could run if it breaks above 2.88, but I'm not holding my breath... I'll just put it on my radar.

In other items, Friday I added to FCX and opened a long position in IBM at 89.50 as discussed last Thursday.  I will add to MS and S on any pullback Monday.  

"Six percent rallies don't happen in bull markets."

...and that is directly quoted from Macroman.  Well, we'll just have to see about that.

Or, for Rambo fans: "Nothing is over."

Needless to say, I took some profits.  First, let's go to the charts:

IBM looks good for a long here.  Very good price movement and has formed a classic double bottom.  Conservative traders should look for a breakout above 89.50 to get serious.

SLV long. You either love precious metals or hate 'em.  I just decided to keep 5-10% of my trading portfolio in this sector and split it equally between GLD and SLV.  No emotion, no fallout bunker, no ammo, no SPAM.  When they get above the regression line, I sell some; when they get below, I buy some.  It works for me.

Sprint (S) is a nice pattern for a long position.  This is snugging up to overhead resistance should break through one of these times.  Could double.  Use the lower trend line for a sell-stop.

MRVL has been reviewed before as a long candidate.  Like a wimp, I got stopped out in the past-- which is further evidence of Teresa lo's advice not to set stops too tight.  Any pullback in this could be a buying opportunity, but this could just run away from here.  CY also is a strong chart.

While I remain skeptical by nature and I have no trust in the bull thesis here, I could not find any classis short set-ups.  AXP, COF, FRX and CEG all look like decent shorts, but not outstanding.  I sold half my FCX in the pop, but will add it back with any pullbacks... I still think it's going to $40 or beyond.  MS, likewise, was sold for a gain.