Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Barry asks if we are at another bottom!

While I read Barry Ritholz' Big Picture every day, I am sometimes amazed at the posts he throws up that are supposed to be examples of market research or insight.

He is now showing a trend line graph (at right) of the S&P from the 1970's to present and asking is we can count on the current point as a market bottom merely because we are 40% below the trend line.  In 1970 this same percentage did mark a bottom and the market recovered thereafter.

Perhaps Barry is asking a rhetorical question and thus making the answer obvious... "no, we are not at a bottom."   A couple data points over several decades are hardly an expository review of the situation.  

The commenters are on top of the situation with many taking the graph and the conclusion to task.

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