ES_F: Trader Vic or A-B-C ??

Update on the developing pattern. 1127.75 is key level for bounce or breakdown.

TLT and the Mamis bottom

Long bonds had an excellent auction today showing that the smart guys are pricing in a bit more deflation as the speculators are still chasing new stock highs. Bottoms form like this.

Jobs worse than expected, December retail sales worse than expected, gas prices tick higher, inventories tick higher, China a seething pit of corruption. Do the math.







Reminder: this is the classic Mamis bottom:

Trader Vic 2B vs. A-B-C ??

Either way, we should pull back to the trend line. A break below the horizontal would be bearish. A break above the recent swing high is bullish.

SPY Ascending Wedge

Above 114.22 would damage bear thesis.

Be Careful Bears

I went over some bearish Wolfe waves yesterday on SPX and EEM. Today we are seeing a respect for the longer term trend. My take is still short term bearish, but the indices must break prove themselves by breaking below the trend.

Bearish Wolfe Waves: SPY and EEM

Chorus of Positive News: January 1930

In January 1930, exactly 80 years ago, the news of the recovery was all over the press. TIME magazine reported:

Editor Marcus A. Rose of The Business Week: "Business will be good in 1930 for the lean, hard firms..."

Editor Richard H. Edmonds of the Manufacturers' Record: "I anticipate a gradual but marked improvement throughout the country."

Editor Ralph C. Busby of India Rubber & Tire Review: "Distributors everywhere in looking to 1930 have legitimate reason to be conservatively optimistic."

Editor Lester W. W. Morrow of Electrical World: "Electrical manufacturers are in splendid shape..."

President Louis Fairchild of Fairchild Publications: "A late Easter is expected to aid sales of men's, women's and children's apparel accessories."

Editor A. C. Saunders of Furniture Manufacturer: ". . . the business, valley will not be deep and will be crossed during the first quarter of 1930."

Editor Peter A. Stone of American Contractor: "During the year 1930 the volume of building construction work materializing will be greater than in 1929. . . ."

Editor J. S. Warren of Hotel Management: "During 1930 hotels should prosper as a result of the intensified sales efforts that most manufacturers and others will make, in that more salesmen will be on the road."

Editor Carl W. Stocks of Bus Transportation: "The year looms bright for the industry."

So how did we do with all these glowing predictions?

Yellow shade is the calendar year 1930 which started out at 267 and ended down 38% at 160.... and proceeded to bottom in 1933 at 50 points.

Dr. Pangloss never dies, and deflationary cycles tend to rhyme. My guess: we are at about April of 1930 today.