Monday, January 11, 2010

Chorus of Positive News: January 1930

In January 1930, exactly 80 years ago, the news of the recovery was all over the press. TIME magazine reported:

Editor Marcus A. Rose of The Business Week: "Business will be good in 1930 for the lean, hard firms..."

Editor Richard H. Edmonds of the Manufacturers' Record: "I anticipate a gradual but marked improvement throughout the country."

Editor Ralph C. Busby of India Rubber & Tire Review: "Distributors everywhere in looking to 1930 have legitimate reason to be conservatively optimistic."

Editor Lester W. W. Morrow of Electrical World: "Electrical manufacturers are in splendid shape..."

President Louis Fairchild of Fairchild Publications: "A late Easter is expected to aid sales of men's, women's and children's apparel accessories."

Editor A. C. Saunders of Furniture Manufacturer: ". . . the business, valley will not be deep and will be crossed during the first quarter of 1930."

Editor Peter A. Stone of American Contractor: "During the year 1930 the volume of building construction work materializing will be greater than in 1929. . . ."

Editor J. S. Warren of Hotel Management: "During 1930 hotels should prosper as a result of the intensified sales efforts that most manufacturers and others will make, in that more salesmen will be on the road."

Editor Carl W. Stocks of Bus Transportation: "The year looms bright for the industry."

So how did we do with all these glowing predictions?

Yellow shade is the calendar year 1930 which started out at 267 and ended down 38% at 160.... and proceeded to bottom in 1933 at 50 points.

Dr. Pangloss never dies, and deflationary cycles tend to rhyme. My guess: we are at about April of 1930 today.


  1. good research - however - if we do mirror this - i think we are way past jan 1930 - more like March/April 1930 - however - they didn't have the fed in 1930 spending like there was no 2morow on stocks, bonds and junk. its having an inflated effect on the mkts yet it is very clear we are seriously overvalued.

  2. Agree. My last sentence states that I think we are presently analogous to April 1930. Also, I would not expect a 75% decline over the next 2 years; certainly we are much further on our way to re-flating assets this time around.

  3. 1933 here we come right back where we statred from.