Showing posts with label nem. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nem. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Gold miners losing their glitter

I have been a long term holder of gold and view it as a currency surrogate.  The miners are a different animal altogether, and while I do own some mining companies in the form of Fidelity Gold (FSAGX) in my retirement accounts, GLD is my favored vehicle.  I also have SLV.

The charts, however, are showing some signs of technical weakness and this may get worse as macro factors weigh on the cost structure of gold mining companies.  If oil rises, gold miniers will experience margin pressure since they use an inordinate amount of fossil fuel in production.  As the stock market recovers, interest in owning gold will wane.

Gold sentiment has been bearish for a while with advertisements to buy gold becoming commonplace.  This usually occurs near the top of the market.

GLD has broken down below trend as the stock indices have improved.  This may be evidence of damage to the gold complex. I will continue to hold both GLD and SLV, but favor SLV currently.








ABX is a short candidate here, trading below its 20 dMA and now having retraced 23% on the Fibonacci.  Set the buy-stop near overhead resistance, but not too tight.








NEM is not as clearly a short candidate, but is showing signs of weakness.  If oil spikes and/or we have continued improvement in the stock indices, this could fall apart.  Short only below 34.50 and use the declining trend line as the buy-stop.  It can fall pretty far if it breaks down.