Saturday, December 19, 2009
Ritholtz on the Market
Points he made:
1. We are still in a secular bear market.
2. The easy money has been made in the counter trend rally, but bias is still to the upside.
3. Inverse correlation of stocks to the dollar seems to be ending.
4. "We're giving the rally the benefit of the doubt. Innocent until proven guilty."
5. "The easy trade is to bet rally is over, and rarely is the easy trade correct."
6. Not a new bull market because valuations are still not as cheap as 1982.
7. Sentiment is middle of the road, and is not useful at the current juncture.
8. We could churn for 18 months, ala 1975 to 1978.
9. One graphic he had shows that bear market rallies average about 70%, and then show a 25% pullback before a 5 year churn. So, should we expect a 25% pullback soon?