SPY: Wolfe and Elliot Waves

SPY targets based on both Elliot waves and Wolfe wave are approximately 108.80 in this cycle. Then we should bet a bounce consistent with the A wave of a counter-trend Elliot wave.

First the Elliot waves starting at last Fridays' gap up open:


















Then the Wolfe Wave on the same time frame. Both give a target of about 108.80 before the bounce. Or, the bounce at 108.80-ish could be the start of Elliot wave 4. But the near-term target remains the same.

SPY: Elliot wave and Time frames

SPY is at a critical level based on my Elliot wave analysis. A close below the Aug high of 104.35 (intra-day) or 103.80 (closing price) would invalidate the Wave 4 I've been considering.

Using time frame analysis, a Wave 5, should it occur, may run into resistance in mid-October. Since Wave 3 cannot be the shortest motive wave, a Wave 5 can be no higher than 110.50.

Remember, a close below 104.35 should cast doubt on my analysis, and a close below the highest close in August-- 103.80 --would render my EWT analysis invalid and the "Wave 4" broken.