Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

No chart, just an opinion. With Semi's up strong today, CNBC had a guy touting the sector and how to get in.

Tomasulo talking up SMH. He likes SMH but not INTC?!! WTF? SMH is 24% INTC, 14% AMAT and 19% TXN. Of all the ETF's this one is not worth buying, IMO. Tomasulo's reasoning is flawed. 60% of this ETF is three companies.

I like the smaller players in this sector, FWIW: CY and MRVL. Maybe a little speculative for some traders, but if INTC is going to go up, these should fly.

Tech names in other sectors outside of Semi's that are reasonable Lotto tickets: PEGA, FIRE.

The Swine flu narrative infects talking heads: Update

SPY looks to be range bound but the gap fade this morning is impressive. I keep looking for he bottom to fall out of this thing and it never happens. Resistance is 87.50 or so and it has bumped up against it a few time now, so one of these times it may break through to the upside.

The bounce off the mauve line this morning was abrupt and the action is now constructive. Gap fades like this are nice to catch on the upside and it may develop into an upward trend day. Horizontal support, not depicted on the chart, is 83.5 or 84.

The QQQQ looks even stronger here on a technical standpoint. Software and semis.

CNBC is becoming unwatchable. Everything that happens is "because" of some horseshit news item. I realize they need to earn a paycheck by creating a narrative around something and with swine flu, consumer confidence, Mike Huckman's next "blockbuster drug", Obama's first 100 days, BAC needing more money, etc... today seems like a more target-rich environment than usual.

The swine flu hysteria is ridiculous, and comparing it to the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic borders on insanity*. Folks, this is more bullshit narrative that has no basis in reality. More young people will die this weekend in the US from .38 caliber handguns than will die from swine flu the entire year. Endemic social diseases are more costly by far than viral epidemics.

The strategy now is a combination of long and short swing trades. I've pretty much stoppped the day-trading since it was driving me nuts and not really improving my performance. I'm using Invivoanalytics (thanks Eric, T.Lo and Pete) and also Barry Ritholtz' FusionIQ quant sites for professional opinions and portfolio advice

My theme lately is long semis (MRVL, CY) and software (BMC, maybe I'll add ADBE), APH, FCX for gold and copper, GLD, SLV, DD, NMO, and looking to add TLM (this morning looks like maybe a good opportunity.)

RWF, ARK, GTY and others are in the IRA.

Shorts currently are HRB, TYC, APOL, ALKS and recently added BG. Stops are set on all shorts!!

The move back to swing trading will likely delay any further graying of the hair. I'll try to cover some individual charts if/when I get time.

___________________

*UPDATE

Bespoke has a great chart on the effect the 1918 Spanish flu had on the stock market. My great-grandfather was a general practitioner in Chicago at that time and the legend is that he would travel the neighborhoods with his holy water as the sole weapon against the viral scourge that killed tens of millions. Despite the utter despair, the market dropped a mere 10% and recovered more quickly than the populace.

"Six percent rallies don't happen in bull markets."

...and that is directly quoted from Macroman.  Well, we'll just have to see about that.

Or, for Rambo fans: "Nothing is over."

Needless to say, I took some profits.  First, let's go to the charts:

IBM looks good for a long here.  Very good price movement and has formed a classic double bottom.  Conservative traders should look for a breakout above 89.50 to get serious.

SLV long. You either love precious metals or hate 'em.  I just decided to keep 5-10% of my trading portfolio in this sector and split it equally between GLD and SLV.  No emotion, no fallout bunker, no ammo, no SPAM.  When they get above the regression line, I sell some; when they get below, I buy some.  It works for me.

Sprint (S) is a nice pattern for a long position.  This is snugging up to overhead resistance should break through one of these times.  Could double.  Use the lower trend line for a sell-stop.

MRVL has been reviewed before as a long candidate.  Like a wimp, I got stopped out in the past-- which is further evidence of Teresa lo's advice not to set stops too tight.  Any pullback in this could be a buying opportunity, but this could just run away from here.  CY also is a strong chart.

While I remain skeptical by nature and I have no trust in the bull thesis here, I could not find any classis short set-ups.  AXP, COF, FRX and CEG all look like decent shorts, but not outstanding.  I sold half my FCX in the pop, but will add it back with any pullbacks... I still think it's going to $40 or beyond.  MS, likewise, was sold for a gain.