Are chips stocks heating up? Updates on positions.

The only immediate set-ups I see from the chart voo-doo (technical analysis) are:

1.  CRUS actually looks strong. Should get to $25 in next few weeks. ($21.11 as I type, and I'm buying half-allocation)

2.  AMD is breaking out at $3.70, target would be $4.30; while I usually avoid stocks under $10 this one has decent volume. No position.

3. Others are close to their near-term highs (where sellers have come in before) so I'd be patient based on the charts.

4.  I plead ignorance on fundamentals of these companies, but it I infer from the buzz that the sector is heating up. (???)

Disclosure: I own INTC since December as part of the Dow Dogs dividend strategy, and will hold. Stop-loss is currently at break-even but should be raised.

Unrelated, as per my last entry:

a) I went long UA at 51.75, currently up 12%, and have reset by stop-loss at 53.50.

b) holding XLE, avg cost is 72.60, adding on dips.

New holdings in last couple weeks: BKCC, FEU, KMP.  

FWIW, I like EWW and IYM right here, but I'm not adding since I already have a full allocation in these. 

I've recently sold MSFT for +3.75, 

I wish I'd bought CAT, I had a standing order for a buy at 79.50 and it never triggered even though my computer has a print price of 79.49 last month. Now it's above 89. D'oh.

Buys and Sells: WAG, CNK,

WAG, CNK and SIX have been beasts, up quite a bit. I'm selling half a stake in each and letting half ride. Those are the only ones I'm currently holding.

I can't find any excellent breakouts here, but I'm starting half a stake in UA and adding to my long term position in XLE.  I'll be maintaining approx 3-5% stop-losses as usual.

RDN's chart looks compelling but it's only a $10 stock and not my favorite price point. MRK looks ready, too, but I already have PFE and JNJ, so I'll pass. 

CRUS is technically broken, FWIW, but on my watch list for a set up. For some reason traders are factoring in a lot of pain for AAPL which would be a good position above $470. 

Silver: $SLV

Anyone who has been long silver in the last 18 months has been suffering. My quick technical analysis of the weekly chart shows a few things:

1. The recent breakout above the descending trendline at $28 has not been confirmed with volume.

2. Long term support is $26, that's where buyers have shown up as far back as Jan 2011

3. Sellers have come in before at $34

If you are a trader, then long positions should be suspect without a breakout above $34 ON VOLUME.

If you are a long term holder, any significant break below $26 should signal trouble.

If you bought silver in the last year, well what can I say?

Elliott Wave Update

Daily SPY with Elliot Wave Counts

This is an update from last week's Elliot analysis.

Downward impulse from April took 8 weeks but finished with the A-B-C which began the first week of June.  Large volume sell-offs yesterday and today seem to portend the start of another downward impulse (Orange line).

June lows of 127-ish come into play and should be strong support for a wave 2 to start.

Elliot Waves

OK, Elliot waves have become old-fashioned and few traders look at them anymore. Here are the counts as I see then recent downward impulse. We have completed the A-wave corrective and are likely about to see how low the B-corrective will be.

Voo-doo. The Elliot Waves are usually only apparent to me after they are completed and I find them useless for trading. The low sentiment and oversold technicals from last week are pretty much played out. My guess is that we trade in a low volume range here .

Muddle.

Rising Wedge-- bearish?

Notations on chart, click to enlarge

I'm still net long in my trading account, but have instituted hedges with QID and DZZ.  Other holdings include long positions in UNG, CVX, X and TBT (short Treasuries). All are swing trades for a week or more.

Kimberly Clark (KMB) Wolfe wave

Kimberly Clark (KMB) is a swing trade I've been holding since the August lows but now it seems to be getting ahead of itself. Here is the exit strategy and even a short set-up if the market swoons. Wolfe waves are elegant when they work and this one is a classic set up.

My cost basis is 65.29 and I set my sell-stop on the long position at 70.50 (white trend line). The short set-up is good only for the next few trading sessions on this test of top. If KMB drops below the red trend line then I'll enter a short with a target at the green line or Oct 23rd, whichever comes first. There's a chance that KMB takes off to the upside in which case I'll ride it. If it pulls back it may just trade in a range between the white and red lines in which case I won't have a position. This strategy takes patience but feels great when it works...ie, a fun vanity trade.